Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS63 KSGF 061051
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today with breezy winds and
  very dry air behind a cold front.

- No measurable rain chances in the forecast through next week.
  Minimal chances for rainfall through mid-October.

- Fire Weather conditions will be monitored as very dry air and
  no significant rain are expected over the next 2 weeks which
  will continue to dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For fire weather concerns, see the fire weather section below.

A dry cold front will move through this morning, bringing
somewhat cooler conditions and much drier air to the area. Winds
will be breezy with gusts of 10-20 mph. Highs will be in the
80s.

After lows in the 40s tonight, Monday will bring very pleasant
weather. Look for clear skies, light winds, and highs in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For fire weather concerns, see the fire weather section below.

The story through this week, and likely the following week (Oct
13-19) is that dry conditions and above normal temperatures are
likely to continue.

This week: High temperatures will gradually increase from the
70s Tuesday to the 80s Saturday. No rain is forecast and both
the ECMWF and GFE Ensembles show <10% of members dropping >=0.1"
of total precip during this time.

Next week (Oct 13-19): High temperatures in the 70-80s appear
most likely at this time per ensemble guidance. GFS Ensemble
membership showing total precip >=0.1" increases to around 40%
by late week, while the ECMWF Ensemble is closer to 30%.
Ensemble probabilities and the CPC outlook favor below normal
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A cold front will bring a wind shift this morning, but VFR
conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Today: Widespread elevated fire weather conditions behind a dry
morning cold front. RH values drop to 15-25% across most of the
area this afternoon and evening with north winds of 10-15 mph
gusting to 15-20 mph. Highs temperatures will be in the 80s.

Monday through Saturday (October 7-12):

Rain chances: Less than 10%. Almost all models keep the area
completely dry this week.

Humidity: Dropping to 20-35% each day (highest over the Mark
Twain Natl Forest). May be slightly higher toward the end of
the week.

Wind: Light for most of the week. Breezy out of the south Friday
and Saturday. 10% of models show a combination of winds >20 mph
and RH <30% west of Interstate 49 on Saturday, which is a low
potential but worth keeping an eye on given drying fuels.

Next week (October 13-19)

Rain chances: Drier than normal with limited opportunities for
significant rainfall. 30-40% of models showing 0.1" or more rain
through the week, but fewer than 10% of models show a half inch
of more.

Humidity: Majority of models favor minimum RH values <30% each
afternoon.

Wind: No noteworthy model agreement on any stronger wind
events.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...Titus