Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS63 KSGF 142312
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder weather arrives this weekend. Overnight wind chills are
  forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero
  Saturday night.

- Windy conditions will return on Friday with northwest gusts of
  30 to 40 mph.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist over the next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Some lingering cloud streets behind last night`s frontal
passage can be observed on satellite across southern Missouri
early this afternoon. Aloft, a longwave trough is digging across
the eastern CONUS, while a prominent ridge is set up across the
west.

The resulting surface pressure gradient--along with modest
mixing--has resulted in a crisp and breezy day today. As the
aforementioned front continues to slink southward this evening,
the gradient will loosen, and winds will subside. At the same
time, temperatures will hold steady or slightly drop throughout
the day, and the daily maximum will have likely occurred
earlier this morning. Lows tonight will fall into the teens for
much of the area.

Quiet weather continues through Thursday as the Missouri Ozarks
remain under dry northwest flow aloft. A shortwave impulse will
dive out of Canada and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest,
but its progged track should tend to keep the best forcing and
any precipitation chances just to the northeast of our forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CST Wed
Jan 14 2026

Cold Weekend Temperatures:

The seasonable temperatures continue through Friday afternoon,
but a series of shortwave troughs along with a pair of cold
fronts look to change that Friday night into the weekend. Global
models dig these impulses a bit farther to the west than
Thursday`s, which will bring colder air into the region. Near to
below average maximum temperatures (5 to 10 degrees below) are
forecast through Monday. Saturday night will be the coldest
stretch of the forecast period. NBM probabilistic data show a 30
to 60% chance of overnight minimum temperatures in the single
digits. Furthermore, breezy northwest winds will push wind
chills into the single digits above and below zero. Temperatures
will begin to gradually warm up early next week as ensembles
show mid-level heights rising across the region.

Windy and Dry on Friday:

Winds will increase on Friday as a shortwave digs into southern
Missouri and a 30 to 40 kt 850 mb jet looms overhead. Forecast
soundings suggest mixing potential will be quite high Friday
afternoon, which should allow that higher momentum flow to mix
down to the surface. Deterministic NBM supports northwesterly
wind gusts up to 35 mph, but if this robust mixing does indeed
pan out, then gusts closer to 40 mph will be more likely. In
fact, quantile-mapped distribution data depict 40 to 60%
probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph atop the Ozark
Plateau. These details will be better resolved as we get in
range of the hi-res guidance. As dry air will remain in place,
these winds could result in Elevated fire danger Friday
afternoon.

Mostly Dry through the Long Term:

Ensemble output suggests limited precipitation chances through
the long term forecast period. We`ll have to watch for the
possibility of some light flurries behind the cold front Friday
night into Saturday morning as soundings show a shallow layer of
moisture and lift are apparent in forecast soundings, but
confidence is low, and impacts are not expected. Current NBM
precipitation chances are near 10% across central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northerly wind gusts up
to 25-30kts will calm over the next 3-4 hours, with winds
gradually becoming more westerly overnight and into Thursday.
Skies are mostly clear behind a cold front that has pushed to
our south, with high pressure expected to build on Thursday.
Only clouds may be some scattered high clouds,which would move
across the area at times through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Camden