Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

683
FXUS63 KSGF 031720
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1120 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry conditions today.

- Breezy southwest winds increase Wednesday morning. Wind gusts
  of 25-35 mph are likely.

- Warmer temperatures briefly return for Wednesday before colder
  air moves in on Thursday. Wind chills may drop into the
  single digits across central MO early Thursday morning.

- Precipitation chances are 20% or less through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1225 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

An upper-level trough was traversing the eastern CONUS early
this morning. At the surface, an area of high pressure was
centered over northern Missouri, acting to suppress cloud
cover over southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. A cold
airmass supplemented by efficient radiational cooling has
dropped temperatures into the teens across much of the forecast
area. Temperatures will only recover into the upper 30s to mid
40s despite mostly clear skies.

Overnight, a tightening pressure gradient and a strong low-
level jet will increase southwesterly winds across southern
Missouri. NBM probabilities of gusts greater than 30 mph
generally range from 30-60% across the plateau with lower
values elsewhere. There is still some model variation in the
strength of the low- level jet, so forecast values could change
with the afternoon package, but would not be surprised to see a
few gusts near 35 mph late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Gusty southwest winds Wednesday morning will gradually turn
more northwesterly throughout the day. Although mixing may
increase somewhat in the afternoon, Bufkit soundings suggest
only a shallow mixing layer will be present, and warm air
advection and a weakening pressure gradient may act to offset
some of the gains from mixing.

Wednesday afternoon will likely be the warmest day of the week
for most with 850 mb temperatures in the 5-8 degree Celsius
range. This would correlate with surface temperatures in the
mid to upper 50s, which is corroborated by NBM temperature data.
The warm temperatures will be brief, however, as a dynamic
upper- level trough dives south out of Canada into the Great
Lakes region and drags a strong and dry cold front through the
forecast area.

Temperatures Wednesday night will drop into the 20s to mid
teens across portions of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.
Plus, continued breezy winds of 20-25 mph would produce single
digit wind chills for these locations. Forecast confidence has
increased that cold conditions will continue through the day
Thursday as a closed upper-level low spins over the Pacific
southwest. In fact, forecast highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s
will make for a 20-25 degree temperature change from the day
prior.

Ensembles still depict variation in how quickly they bring the
aforementioned upper-level low east during the end of the week,
but there is a signal for a general warming trend Friday into
the weekend. NBM percentile data support highs near to slightly
above average on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50s to
perhaps near 60.

Dry conditions are expected through much if not all of the
forecast period with nebulous forcing and limited moisture. PoPs
remain less than 20% through Sunday morning with some increasing
chances early next week as the upper-level wave finally pushes
east. As mentioned, however, there remain fairly significant
differences in timing, position, and magnitude of this wave, so
confidence remains low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with just a few passing high clouds. Surface winds
will remain southerly with increasing speeds and gusts on
Wednesday along with a gradual turn to the southwest. Low level
wind shear is likely at the TAF sites tonight through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Burchfield